The Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures / Junyong Lee, Kyounghun Lee, and Frederick Dongchuhl Oh

We review the literature on the effectiveness of capital controls and macroprudential measures. First, we explain the purposes and examples of capital controls and macroprudential policies. We then analyze various theoretical models and empirical findings from prior studies that investigate the effectiveness of each instrument. Moreover, we review several studies that directly compare the two instruments and discuss whether policymakers should implement capital controls or macroprudential measures to overcome financial crises. Finally, based on a discussion of the findings of previous studies, we suggest several possible avenues for future research.

From Miracle to Mediocrity? Explaining the Growth Slowdown of the Korean Economy / Duyong Kang and Sungkeun Park

To investigate the causes of Korea’s growth slowdown over the past thirty years, we estimate the contributions of major developmental factors, including i) demographic factors (changes in population growth and workforce age due to the demographic transition), ii) quality-of-liferelated choice factors (changes in working hours, education, and the female employment rate), iii) structural change, and iv) the effects of productivity catch-up. Our estimates show that these four groups of factors account for approximately 90 percent of the growth slowdown, with demographic factors contributing approximately 30 percent and the other three groups of factors each contributing about 20 percent. We also show that the same factors explain most of Korea’s high growth in the 1980s. These results suggest that Korea’s growth slowdown is basically a consequence of its successful economic development and that the high growth and subsequent slowdown can be regarded as a single process. In addition, given that the factors examined here exhibit similar patterns of change in the course of economic development of most countries, we think that our estimation results of the relationship between economic development and changes in economic growth trends could have more general implications that go beyond Korea’s experience.

전세가격의 비용화와 소비자물가지수: 소비자물가지수 자가주거비 반영을 중심으로 / 오지윤
The Conversion of Chonsei into Monetary Costs and its Relationship with the Consumer Price Index / OH,Jiyoon

The Chonsei component holds the highest level of weight (5.4%) in the composition of the Korean consumer price index (CPI). The variations in Chonsei prices are directly reflected in the CPI as a representation of cost swings. The Chonsei refers to a deposit that accumulates the costs related to housing services and is mostly affected by variations in rental rates. Nevertheless, it is important to note that Chonsei prices are also susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates, regardless of the rent prices. Therefore, if Chonsei were directly and one-to-one indexed to the CPI, they could include changes other than residential service prices. After analyzing the time series data of the Chonsei index and rent index inside the CPI, it becomes apparent that the Chonsei index displays an average annual growth rate of 2.3%, whilst the rent index reveals a growth rate of 0.9%. The observed disparity in growth rates indicates a divergence in trends between the two indices. It is posited that the Chonsei index, when capitalized, has had a more rapid increase compared to the rental index, owing to the gradual drop in interest rates. To effectively reflect fluctuations in the housing service costs, proxies for the Chonsei index were utilized in the construction of a consumer price index. The findings of our study suggest that, overall, the newly developed CPI demonstrates a comparatively lower rate of inflation when compared to the official CPI. Furthermore, the inclusion of imputed rents for owner-occupied housing in CPI amplifies this effect.